Wednesday, September 2, 2026

Op MEDUSA at 20

 

Op MEDUSA: The Battle of Panjwaii

 

Taliban Brigade Slaughtered

 

Chose to Fight Rather than Switch

 

“It wasn’t the thousand we killed that was important.”

 

 

By Vincent J. Curtis                                                               11 September 2007

 

 

Op MEDUSA was the main Canadian effort in the Kandahar area during the latter half of 2006.  It began in August, was completed in November, and culminated in the climactic battle of Panjwaii in September.  The largest Canadian combat operation since Korea, over a thousand of the enemy were found dead on the battlefield.  The outcome of the battle decisively changed Taliban operations for the remainder of 2006 and throughout 2007.

Canadians tend to ignore Canadian successes and dwell upon perceived Canadian failures.  When told of a silver lining, they grumble about the existence of a dark cloud.   Typical of this style, the importance and success of MEDUSA was largely ignored in the media and the public consciousness, until recently.  Then, awareness of MEDUSA was raised by allegations of mismanagement by the senior commanders in the opening of the battle, leading to the deaths of four Canadian soldiers on 3 September 2006.  An errant air strike the next day led to the death of another and wounded 34.

No good description of the battle from the command perspective is as yet in the public domain.  Context for valid criticism is lacking.  For readers  to be able to judge for themselves the merits of the allegations, and to properly evaluate the significance of the Canadian victory, the author, on behalf of EdC, arranged for this exclusive interview with BGen David Fraser, who was the overall ISAF commander during the battle.

            BGen Fraser spoke in his office at the Canadian Forces College, and had battle maps and other intelligence products spread out on the coffee table as he described the battle.  In conversation, he would sometimes point at a location on the map and say “here,” and to the photograph of an individual and say “this guy.”  These references are transcribed in square brackets.  Square brackets are also used for clarification. 

He got quickly to the point.

“Medusa was made in several phases.  It actually carried on into November, long after I left.  In fact BAZOOKA, was a continuation of Medusa.  Medusa was a continuation of operations we carried on in July, and June, and May, and April; and they were a continuation of operations from what happened a year earlier.”

            “I’m going to give you the macro picture first.  This is the responsibility I had: 220,000 square miles.  That’s what we were inheriting. We had a picture of where the enemy was when we got there.  The enemy was very fluid.  He moved around a lot.  Because he was in a lot of different places, my forces and the concept I had was we will go and take the initiative and engage the enemy and disrupt him everywhere.  That means he is now focused on us, and that creates the conditions that we start reconstruction.  The enemy is not attacking the people, or the reconstruction efforts.  That was the intent.”

            “There was probably about a thousand [Taliban], in about platoon sized groups.  The groups didn’t operate together, they operated as little groups.  The group that came from [a particular locale] came from [that particular locale], and it stayed there.  These little groups took direction from Taliban leaders that were [located in Pakistan.]  Each province had a Taliban commander, and the regional commander would get direction from the big guy, and he would go off and try to discredit the Afghan government, attack the OEF [Operation Enduring Freedom, i.e. US forces] or ISAF [International Stabilization and Assistance Force, i.e. other NATO forces] soldiers, attack construction, attack schools, to show the Afghan government were not governing, were not in control, and that the international organization was impotent.”

            “They lived off the land.  They intimidated the people.”

Because of the lack of Afghan national security force, the Taliban were able to control entire districts except for small pockets centered on a couple of towns.

            “All the tribes have certain issues against each other, and the Taliban plays on those frictions and those seams to propagate their own agenda.  In the absence of an Afghan government, they’ll go in and run those tribes through sheer force because they are the warlords and they’ve got the most guns and they will use them.”

            “So what?  We might go in there.  I might have done 99 per cent of the work.  The 1 per cent which was the most important thing was I listened to an Afghan who told me where to go and what to do.”

            “When I first got into Helmund, the governor told me ‘I control [these two towns.]  I need to control [these three other towns.]  That’s where I need to expand my area of influence.  I want you to go and oust the Taliban out of [two of the three places] so that I can insert my mayor, my chief of police, and an Afghan National Security Force.’”

            Okay, so you go in, shoo the flies away, you go away and the flies come back.  If you stick around, you have isolated platoons, your force is divided, and you have given up the initiative.

            “In some respects, but we are moving around all the time.  They never get a chance to settle.  You go in, you shoo the flies away, and you keep doing it and that is the disruption I was aiming for.  Americans were doing that before I got there.  When I show up, I doubled the size of the force, [and increased the area in which Taliban operations were disrupted.]  We keep shooing the flies away to allow that governor to install his people.  The Taliban were being disrupted, and it worked.”

            “We were shooing the flies away up into July, 2006.  But we knew something else was happening.  We were getting intelligence that [Panjwaii] was being built up.  On the third of August, he was an enemy that wasn’t in the size of thirty.  He wasn’t in the size of one hundred.  He was in the size of about five hundred.”  They had all congregated in the area of Panjwaii.

            On the third of August the intelligence picture changed.  “We figured out that he had changed his tactics, and mentally he had changed.  On the third of August we had figured out his intent.  He had gone from being an unconventional force to being a conventional force.  In insurgency doctrine when the insurgents think they are strong enough they will go conventional and actually take on the legitimate authorities, and it is their main effort.”

            “In August the Taliban decided that their main effort for 2006 would be to take on the Afghan government and the international community.  They’re saying ‘we can defeat you.’”

            What make them think that?  “Historically, [the area around Panjwaii] has always been the ground the insurgents have selected to have taken on whoever the authorities were at the time, and in history they always won.”

            “Les Grau.  That’s where I’ve heard of this before.  In July, I said ‘I’ve seen something here that I’ve read before.’  It was in The Other Side of the Mountain.  The Mujahedin fought the Soviets on this piece of ground twenty years earlier.  They picked the ground.  Why?  Because the ground is World War I on steroids.  It is threatening the strategic center of gravity for the southern part of Afghanistan, called the city of Kandahar.  The center of gravity of the Pashtun tribes, of that society, of that region is the city of Kandahar.  Whatever affects the city of Kandahar affects the entire society.  The Taliban wanted to show the Afghan people, the Afghan government and the international community that they can put pressure on Kandahar city, show your weakness, and we can beat you.”

            The Panjwaii area lies between thirty and fifty kilometers west of Kandahar, south of Highway 1, the main route of transportation in that area of the country.  It straddles the Arghandab River.  It is about twenty kilometers by ten kilometers in size, or two hundred square kilometers.  Besides being defensible ground, it forms a convenient staging area for movement into the mountains around Kandahar, and eventually for infiltration into the city itself.  Fraser estimated that the Taliban actually wanted ISAF to attack them in Panjwaii, as the Soviets had previously.  The Taliban calculated that if they could inflict enough casualties on ISAF and the ANA, the international community and the Afghan government would give up.  The Taliban would then claim to have beaten the Afghans and the international force, and they did it on the ground of their choosing.  ‘It worked before, I want to do the same thing again.’

            “That was their intent.  I will counter their intent.”

            “They thought, wrongly I would say, they could take on ISAF, meaning the international community, because they thought we were not as strong as the Americans.  For What?  The key was, we had been beating them up, and for some reason they thought they could beat us.  And they put initially about five hundred fighters in [Panjwaii] from five different provinces.”

This concentrated the bulk of the Taliban fighting force in Fraser’s area of responsibility in Panjwaii, inviting Fraser to attack.  “They’ve got them all in there.”

            “That was the bad news.  The good news was that I knew where they all were.  So instead of fighting groups of thirty everywhere, I had them all in one spot.  They put their main effort here.  They put their main leadership here.  This was the battle they thought could finish the war.  Right there in the summer and fall of 2006.”

            Fraser was limited in his ability to concentrate his force.  The Taliban still had small groups outside Panjwaii, and ISAF presence was necessary to maintain the confidence of the people in the rest of the region.  “We had to show the people we’re not going to run away.”

            The enemy force was all concentrated in one area, leaning on a strategic nerve, Fraser knew where they all were, and Fraser’s plan was to defeat the enemy.

            You mean destroy.

            “Defeat.  Not destroy.  To destroy the enemy means doctrinally to me that he is incapable of mounting or conducting any more offensive operations against you.  You cannot destroy the Taliban รก la Napoleon in one battle.  The war was not going to end.  All we could do was make a significant improvement in the situation.  And we did.”

            Fraser started Medusa with a soft-knock approach.  He asked the tribal elders and the provincial governors to speak to the Taliban in Panjwaii and invite them to come over to the government side, or to leave.  Many of the Taliban fighters were local boys who joined the Taliban for the pay.  Coming from the area, they had a stake in its future, and the future offered by the Afghan government was better than anything offered by the Taliban.  Moreover, sheer numbers told against them.  There was simply no way that 500 Taliban could govern by force a province of one million people, 700,000 of them in Kandahar itself.

            “I wanted to resolve this without firing a shot.”

            That approach didn’t work, and the decision was made to take them out with force.

            “While this discussion is going on, we [deployed our forces around Panjwaii.]”

            The deployment of forces appears on the accompanying map.

            “[Panjwaii] is one of the worst things I’ve ever seen in my life.  It is just dirt thing that has this river running through it.”

            The Arghandab River is from two to four hundred meters wide, from a few centimeters to 1.5 meters deep, and swift flowing only in a few areas.  It is fordable for a lot of its length in the area of operation.

            “We started our operations from the south going across the river.  Why?  Firepower, protection, and mobility.  All the open space enabled us to maximize the observation capability our vehicles offered us, the distance with our weapons systems enabled us to engage [outside the range of Taliban weapons], as opposed down from the north.  [From the north] is all close terrain.  The south was more conducive to us.  They could see us, but we could stand off.”

The initial main effort was from the south across the river, and the effort from the north was supporting.  A subsidiary effort was made against Sperwan by a US/ANA force.  A Taliban force from Sperwan could operate against the flank and rear of the main effort from the south, but the US/ANA force kept the Taliban in Sperwan occupied.  Dutch and Danish forces formed a screen to the north and west of the operational area.  They kept Highway 1 open, and could catch stragglers trying to escape the battle.

            The plan of attack was to crush the Taliban force that was known to be concentrated in Pashmul between the jaws of a pincer movement from the north and south.  The remnants of that force would be driven west into Sia Choy, down the river from Pashmul.  After the US/ANA force captured Sperwan, they would pivot northwards towards Sia Choy, and Sia Choy would be crushed in turn between the jaws of the pincer formed by the US/ANA force from the south and the Canadian force from the East.

            “On the third [of September] was the time to say ‘let’s move.’  In hindsight, we made the right decision together.  Collectively, we all.  That was the right thing to do because the results of the battle speak for themselves.  We’re not talking about a failure.  We killed over a thousand bad guys here.”

            “But it’s not about bodies.  Its success for me was when [the tribal elders and provincial governors, including President Karzai’s brother] came up to me at the end and said ‘thank you.’  For the first time they were all confident that they could actually beat the Taliban, because they’d just been.  For the first time in Afghan history the guy who was defending, lost.  The head of the Afghan army was giddy.”

            “Here’s what happened.  On the third, we crossed, we actually broke in and we got on top of these guys.  So the decision process of ‘was the third a good day to attack?’: we got into the enemy’s backyard.  We got in there, into his house.  So, yes.  Did it cost four lives that day? Yes, and that is a tragic part of this battle that we were going to incur casualties.  We got in though, and we proved that we could get into the house, and therefore the decision was validated, and we needed to press the attack.  Now, what nobody planned for was on the 4th [of September] this A-10 coming in and having situational disorientation. Bad accident. He killed a soldier and wounded thirty-four.  No one anticipated that.”

            “So what?  The planned called, again, to cross the river and go back into here.  No.  The opportunity was that the enemy now knew that I was coming in there.  I’d been in there once.  Okay, I’m going to surprise you.  I’m going to deceive you.  I’m going to take Omer [i.e. LCol Omer Lavoie and the main part of his battle group, leaving C Coy in place], and bring him around and reinforce the unit that’s up here [i.e. B Company to the north], and now that unit’s not just one [company], he’s two, three times bigger than the enemy.  I created this American led task force [where the main effort had been].  The job I gave Task Force Grizzly was [to deceive the enemy into believing that the main effort would come from the south.]  ‘I want [the enemy] to think you are a 1000 man battle group, like Omer.  I want you to keep the pressure on him because I’ve sent Omer around to the north, and we’re going to attack him from a different direction.’”

            “That was the opportunity that two bad days gave us.”

            “C Company had two hard days.  On the third and on the fourth.  On the fourth C Company lost their company commander and their entire chain of command.  C Company needed a little bit of time to get their thoughts together.  They weren’t shaken, they just needed a little bit of time to get their thoughts together.  I gave them that time, I pumped them up with some other assets to create Task Force Grizzly, and they were in the battle.  They never left the battle.  They never left the battle, and they were on Rugby at the end when 1 RCR defeated the enemy in Pashmul.”

            “Up until the third, every time we saw a bona fide target, military necessity, collateral damage estimated was mitigated, we hit it with something, direct fire, indirect fire, to keep the pressure on."

The Taliban did not break and run from their positions under pressure from the Canadians.  Rugby, the code name for Pashmul, was "a hard nut."  What came as a surprise to Fraser was Sperwan.  It turned out that Sperwan was the main training base of the Taliban, and Taliban were crossing the river in broad daylight in trucks to reinforce Sperwan against the US/ANA attack.

"We killed probably 300 plus in Sperwan.  They were coming across in broad daylight out of Sia Choy on the backs of trucks in broad daylight to reinforce [Sperwan.]  In broad daylight.  And we were just engaging them, and we were shaking our heads wondering 'what have we just hit?'  We knew there was something there."

The force attacking Sperwan was bigger than a company but smaller than a battalion.  There were American forces, ANA, two 105s that were supporting them with a company from the RCDs, all working in unison.  The American forces had humvees.  No tanks, not even Bradleys.  "The Canadians were the best equipped over there."

The Taliban were standing and fighting, "they did not run."

Medusa killed twice as many Taliban as intelligence estimates initially guessed were in the area.

"Well, because they did two reliefs in place while we were there.  They were funneling them in, some of them" through the screen to the west, and the rest through the 'hole in the bag' in the south-west area of Panjwaii.  "And that was fine."

"Did we watch them exfil? Yes.  Did many of them get out?"  No. "I'm just saying it was a bloody fight."

"But it wasn't the thousand we killed that was important.  It was the fact these men in the end [referring to the legitimate provincial governors] had a province and a district to govern and they had a belief and a confidence that they could actually do this now.  And beat the Taliban."

"What's the other effect on the Taliban?  The Taliban put a number, the majority of their senior leadership in there.  We killed most of their leadership.  Now, they replaced them within weeks, but the result of this is the Taliban has never attacked us like this since then."

"We took them from that defensive mode [referring to the first phase of Mao's three phase theory of insurgency], they got offense and aggressive, which is a dangerous evolution, we pushed them back an evolutionary step [i.e. back into the first phase of insurgency].  The bad news is they are still attacking with suicide bombs, they're still attacking with IEDs, now they're going after Afghans.  It's indiscriminate. They're going after the international aide workers and whatnot, and that's not good."

These tactics are ultimately self-defeating.  It enables President Karzai to say that he his there to build.

"There are now ten to thirty thousand people living there that weren't living there before" in a fertile area that is growing a lot more than drugs.  "That sounds to me like progress."

"The fact that the governor there is still governing and hasn't quit, or hasn't been assassinated, the fact that you still have that leadership there, also tells me that they believe in what they're doing and they’re still fighting for the future of their people."

"We were not going to win this in 2006. We were not going to win this in one Napoleonic battle like Waterloo."

"Governance.  It was all about the governors here and the leaders, and the security."  The successful outcome of the battle created the conditions that enabled them to operate much more securely, and they are working on behalf of the Karzai government with whom we are allied.

"There were ANA units here from three different Corps.  They’re performance was good. As good as us?  No. But I'm not comparing them to us. There were three Corps there and the people saw they were reliable."

Referring to the pursuit of the broken Taliban force west of Sia Choy, Fraser continued, "We pushed this way.  When we hit the 24 Easting, we stopped.  We ran into people.  When the people saw us, they started moving away, because the pamphlets, the leaflets we had dropped [prior to the battle] said to do this.  We said 'We don't want you to do this, we will stop here.  Our fight's not with you.  Our fight's with the bad guys, not with you.'"

It was reported in some of these stories that B Company was 50 in strength when they crossed.  Now, that's a little light for a company.  Is that because they were caught in transition when they had only a platoon plus across?

"You are going to have to ask the battalion commander and the company commander.  The battalion commander handles his battalion.  He had guns available to him, he had the LAVs available to him."  Did he have smoke on call, available?  "He ran the battalion.  If he saw a hostile act or hostile intent [inaudible]"

Fraser placed the responsibility for the details of the tactical crossing of the river upon the shoulders of the battalion and the company commander.  His position was that since the river crossing was the main effort, anything the battalion commander wanted was available to him on a first priority basis.

Why wasn't there an infantry screen in front of the vehicles, and what was a G-Wagon doing in the lead element of a river crossing?

"Those are tactics; those are questions you ask them.  But, at the end of the Charles Company won, 1 RCR won."

What about the change in plan?

“A plan is a guide.  No plan survives first contact.”

It's hard to say, but four guys killed in a company attack when you killed a thousand, and an attack of that scale?  Those aren't bad numbers.  I mean, even in one day.... I know it's hard.

"One soldier's life is too much.  I handled the commendations over there.  Every distinction meant some soldier had to put his or her life in jeopardy.  They were all precious to me.  Whatever I could do to mitigate it, I did. "

But you also had to mitigate the damage that would be inflicted by this battle.  Do think that you, consciously or unconsciously, restrained the amount of firepower you could have used in order to preserve something for people to move back into?

"I made a commitment to the governor and [inaudible] that anything I broke or destroyed, I would fix.  We would fix.  I asked for a tank system over there because I wanted to use something more precise, and had a psychological effect.  A 2000 lb GPS-guided bomb, while its effective, I wanted something that was less destructive."

* * *

What began as a request from a provincial governor for assistance to ensure the harvest and delivery to market of the grape crop, ended with the destruction of the Taliban force in Panjwaii and the deaths of at least three senior Taliban commanders in the battle.  MEDUSA wrecked the combat capability of the Taliban for the remainder of 2006, and it destroyed the sense of inevitability that is psychologically useful in any political campaign.  The campaign season of 2007 has seen only IEDs and roadside bombings that are typical of an insurgency at the beginning of its development.  MEDUSA was a real set-back for the Taliban, and it created the conditions for political and economic progress in the Kandahar theatre during 2007, and perhaps farther into the future.  Political and economic progress operates even more effectively against the Taliban than a military setback.

The need for tanks that was discovered during the attack led directly to the acquisition of 120 new Leopard 2 A6s for the Canadian army, which had written off heavy armour in its most recent changes of doctrine.

The outcome of the Battle of Panjwaii was a decisive tactical victory for the Canadians over the Taliban.  Turning a tactical victory into political progress is not a job entirely in Canadian hands, but Canada is doing its part in the team effort for the cause of peace, order, and good government in Afghanistan.

Are lessons to be learned?  There always are.  One lesson learned was the need for heavy armour, i.e. tanks.  Laser-guided 2000 lb bombs are extremely destructive, and saturating Pashmul with such heavy ordinance would be a case of destroying the village in order to save it.  Kandahar province is territory our side controls, and destroying villages and agricultural districts in the process of killing the Taliban amounts to a mixed blessing to the people living there, who are supposed to be our people.  Saturation bombing of the home turf when it can be avoided isn’t the smartest of ideas.

Air strikes and artillery were said to be ineffective against the Taliban positions because they were dug in too deep when C Company called for support during the attack.  Criticism that two day’s saturation bombing would have been more effective than when that fire was on-call and closely directed is not explained.  What became obvious was that a tank-led assault that would combine the armour protection lacking in a G-Wagon with the precise, direct, heavy fire of a 105 mm gun was exactly what the situation called for.  A WWI defensive position on steroids called for a WWI solution on steroids: the modern tank.  Because of that assault on Panjwaii, the Canadian army has tanks again.

The game of ‘woulda, coulda, shoulda’ can always be played, especially when refighting a battle.  But the alternative can also be advanced: It was a prodigy that we suffered as few casualties as we did.  Considering the scale of losses suffered by the enemy in close fighting, Canadians should be grimly content with the battle.  The important thing is whether commanders absorbed the lessons to be learned from the battle.  It appears that they have.

-XXX-

 

           

Wednesday, August 12, 2026

The Donroe Doctrine

Vincent J. Curtis

2 Feb 26

Trump’s National Security Strategy is primarily about economic, and America’s primary adversary in a global economic and political struggle is China. Trump says, “The choice all countries should face is whether they want to live in an American-led world of sovereign countries and free economies or in a parallel one in which they are influenced by countries on the other side of the world.”

Readers of this space will be familiar with the Monroe Doctrine, proclaimed by President James Monroe in 1823. It warns European powers against colonialism in the Western Hemisphere, and declares the Western Hemisphere as the sphere of influence of the United States. The Trump Corollary of the Monroe Doctrine, or the ‘Donroe’ Doctrine, reaffirms the Monroe Doctrine and extends it as follows: “We will deny non-Hemispheric competitors the ability to position forces or other threatening capabilities, or to own or control strategically vital assets, in our Hemisphere.” Trump was 18 years old during the Cuban missile crisis.

The United States must be preeminent in the Western Hemisphere as a condition of our security and prosperity.”

The Strategy emphasizes persuasion over bullying by the US for its selfish ends. “We will enlist established friends in the Hemisphere to control migration, stop drug flows, and strengthen stability and security on land and sea. We will expand by cultivating and strengthening new partners while bolstering our own nation’s appeal as the Hemisphere’s economic and security partner of choice.”

Canada might not have enlisted under the ‘Trump Corollary,’ but she volunteered seventy years ago in the NORAD agreement to partner with the United States in the defense of North America.  The “alternative defense partners” referenced applies to Cuba, Panama, and Venezuela which allied themselves with powers inimical to US interests and hostile to the Monroe Doctrine. Russia, China, Iran, and perhaps Hezbollah are the unnamed alternative defense partners. Mexico, for all its long history of animosity with the US, has mostly adhered to the Western Hemisphere concept in its disputes with the US. (e.g. rejecting the Zimmermann Note, 1917.)

Trump has in mind how the United States fought WWII. America’s supply chains and all essential war resources were practically secure from German and Japanese intervention. Extra oil came from Venezuela; coal, iron, steel, ship building, munitions, Canadian uranium, factories were all secure. Tomorrow’s war essentials, the rare earths, are being dealt with by Trump now.

“The United States will prioritize commercial diplomacy, to strengthen our own economy and industries, using tariffs and reciprocal trade agreements as powerful tools. The goal is for our partner nations to build up their domestic economies, while an economically stronger and more sophisticated Western Hemisphere becomes an increasingly attractive market for American commerce and investment.”  China’s ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ Trump sees as a direct threat to American influence. Not much in this for Canada, except perhaps to steer clear of China, and a clue to us to look to Latin America more closely for trade. (Brazil has 213 million people.)

Without saying ‘China’ explicitly, the Strategy aims to reduce China’s alarming influence in Latin America. “Non-Hemispheric competitors have made major inroads into our Hemisphere, both to disadvantage us economically in the present, and in ways that may harm us strategically in the future. Allowing these incursions without serious pushback is another great American strategic mistake of recent decades.”  Venezuela was under Chinese and Iranian influence before the seizure of Maduro, and Trump is now putting pressure on long-time Russian ally, Cuba. Trump forced China to give up control of the popular app TikTok, and has forced Panama to end Chinese control of port facilities on either end of the Panama Canal.

Canada can make peace with Trump by balancing its trade with America. One stone that kills many birds at once is to purchase lots of needed military gear from America: aircraft, both fixed and rotary-wing; ships, artillery systems, and tanks. Otherwise, Canada should increase American imports, and find alternatives to China.

-30-

 

The US National Security Strategy Part 2

Vincent J. Curtis

1 Feb 26

 His first Administration, 2017-2021, confirmed President Trump in his belief that his national and foreign policies will deliver what he wants, to Make America Great Again, and to Keep America Great. His four years out of office gave him time to collect his thoughts and perfect his program.

Continuing in pedagogic exegesis, Trump asks, “1) What should the United States want? 2) What are our available means to get it? and 3) How can we connect ends and means into a viable National Security Strategy?” Trump’s answer to the first question is a lengthy and detailed essay in itself. In the overall, America should want safety as an independent republic, safety from attack by hostile foreign powers, from hostile influences, from espionage, predatory trade practices, drug and human trafficking, and cultural subversion. In these answers one can see the reason for the Golden Dome, the push for Greenland, his chasing China out of Panama and Venezuela, and his personal animosity to America’s political Left, whom he regards as culturally subversive.

Next up are Trump’s concerns for control of America’s borders and its immigration system, concerns which, along with DEI, fall under the rubric of cultural subversion.

The heart of Trump’s proximate end is this: “We want the world’s most robust industrial base. American national power depends on a strong industrial sector capable of meeting both peacetime and wartime production demands. That requires not only direct defense industrial production capacity but also defense-related production capacity. Cultivating American industrial strength must become the highest priority of national economic policy.” This is the basis for Trump’s tariff policies, and his goal of ending America’s trade deficit with the world.

The aircraft carrier USS Yorktown was badly damaged at the Battle of the Coral Sea, and she was desperately needed for the Battle of Midway. Repair was estimated to require some weeks. Upon docking at Pearl Harbor, 1400 dock workers on their own set to work for 72 straight hours patching up Yorktown, and got her ready for battle. Could America do this today? Doubtful. America’s auto industry worked miracles of productions during WWII.

Trump has seen the war by the Left on the sources of American power generation, first nuclear, then hydro, and since 1992, coal.  Alleged “climate change” is seen by Trump as meant to cripple American power. “We want the world’s most robust, productive, and innovative energy sector—one capable not just of fueling American economic growth but of being one of America’s leading export industries in its own right.” America’s exports of LNG and crude oil to Europe reduces Europe’s dependence on Russia, and every barrel of Venezuelan and Alberta crude America imports means another barrel of American crude at the service of American foreign and economic policy.

When it comes to “soft power”, Trump is not all brutality, and reveals a deftness that arises from experience in dealing with Middle Eastern potentiates, “we exercise positive influence throughout the world that furthers our interests. In doing so, we will be unapologetic about our country’s past and present while respectful of other countries’ differing religions, cultures, and governing systems.”

Trump closes his overall aim with a normative end for American culture, “Finally, we want the restoration and reinvigoration of American spiritual and cultural health, without which long-term security is impossible. We want an America that cherishes its past glories and its heroes, and that looks forward to a new golden age. We want a people who are proud, happy, and optimistic that they will leave their country to the next generation better than they found it. We want a gainfully employed citizenry—with no one sitting on the sidelines—who take satisfaction from knowing that their work is essential to the prosperity of our nation and to the well-being of individuals and families. This cannot be accomplished without growing numbers of strong, traditional families that raise healthy children.” Could Canada want less for itself?

-30-

 

Tuesday, July 28, 2026

The Origin of Natural Gas on Earth

Vincent J. Curtis

23 July 2026

 The planet earth is the product of a supernova.  This supernova occurred 5 billion or more years ago, and some of the products of that supernova found their way into this solar system some time around 4.6 billion years ago.

Before this solar system was born, somewhere in the Milky Way galaxy, a star of the category ‘blue giant’ formed. These stars are fifty to one hundred times the mass of the sun, and it is necessary that this kind of star be the origin of the matter on earth.  These stars have short lifespans as stars go, perhaps as short at 30 million years. Their immense gravity causes them to burn fuel at a gigantic rate.  This star would have begun its life composited entirely of hydrogen, which, under the pressure of gravity begin the process of atomic fusion into helium. Before the hydrogen is exhausted, hydrogen and helium begin fusing into the element lithium. As gravity continues to crush the star’s matter under greater pressure, the temperature rises, hydrogen begins to run short, and the heavier elements themselves begin to fuse to create even heavier elements. Carbon, nitrogen, oxygen, and neon are notable steps in a giant star’s life. Magnesium is produced by fusing two carbons.  In the more massive stars, silicon, the product of fusing carbon and oxygen, becomes notable. In the most massive stars, nuclear fusion can continue under increasing pressure and temperature right up to the creation of iron, the product of fusing magnesium and silicon.

When these massive stars begin producing iron, the end is near; iron production may last only a couple hundred years, according to current theory. But iron is the limit. A star can gain energy by fusing elements into iron, but heavier than iron is endothermic; that means that more energy is absorbed than is released by fusing nuclei into elements heavier than iron, such as nickel.

At the end, the star simply can’t produce enough heat to resist the pull of gravity, and it collapses.  In that collapse a massive amount of energy is released all at once and results a supernova. What is left of the star after a supernova could be a dwarf star, a neutron star, a black hole, or even nothing at all.  Unimaginatively massive amounts of material are blasted into space.

In the explosion of a hydrogen bomb, it is said that all the elements capable of being formed are formed momentarily, perhaps a few microseconds. Something similar but on an incomparably greater scale must happen in a supernova, and elements heavier than iron are formed, right up to uranium at least.

The products of that supernova streamed out into space, cooling as they went.  The earth’s core is composed of a massive chunk of hot iron and some nickel.  In the earth’s crust is found massive amounts of silicon and oxygen, along with calcium, magnesium, and aluminum. There are also ore deposits of many heavy metals too, including lead and gold, right up to the heaviest known naturally occurring element, uranium.  On the surface of the earth is a massive amount of water, a compound of oxygen and hydrogen. The atmosphere is composed of nitrogen and oxygen, along with traces of argon and carbon dioxide.  All of these elements are the products of the atomic fusion processes that occur in massive stars. The massive chunk of hot iron that forms the earth’s core points to the supernova of a massive star, a blue giant, and the elements heavier than iron, right up to uranium in the earth’s crust, point to a supernova also.

On Titan, a moon of Saturn, rivers, lakes, and seas of liquid methane, CH4, and ethane, C2H6, the primary components of natural gas, were discovered.  Titan has a nitrogen atmosphere and water in its crust. The massive amount of methane and ethane on Titan cannot be biological in origin. So, how could they have been created?

They must have been created by the explosion of a star, perhaps the same explosion the debris of which formed the earth.  The creation of carbon is a major step in the lifespan of a star, and a star never runs out of hydrogen.  In the final explosion of this star, the carbon and hydrogen mixed, and when the streams of material shooting out into space cooled enough, the two elements must have combined together chemically to form methane and ethane.  The amount of material expelled from an exploding star is massive compared to the amount of methane and ethane found on Titan, but for Titan the amount was huge.  Everything found on earth is miniscule compared to a star a hundred times more massive than the sun, but it is sufficient to form a small planet like earth.  And this must be so for the earth to be composed as it is, with a hot iron core, and of the elements that it is.

Methane can certainly be formed by biological action, but deposits of natural gas are found in the earth’s crust as deep as 10,000 m down. Ordinary tectonic action would not be able to form biological methane at depths so deep.  In addition, on the ocean floor is found a compound called methane hydrate, a compound of water and methane.  The nature and location of this material make biological origin unlikely, but a raining down from space of methane and water could explain it.

From the massive amounts of methane and ethane on Titan, one is drawn to the conclusion that they have to be the product of an exploded star, for biological action simply can’t explain it.  Hence, too, on earth some at least of this planet’s deposits of natural gas might have come from an exploded star.

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Friday, June 12, 2026

The U.S. Antional Security Strategy, Part 1

Vincent J. Curtis

1 Feb 26

“The business of America is business” is a saying attributed to President Calvin Coolidge. American businessman and President of the United States Donald J. Trump understands a deeper truth than Coolidge meant: that American military, diplomatic, and cultural power in the world depends upon its economic power. Hence, the success of the American economy and American business is the central concern of Trump’s National Security Strategy. The focus on “America First” or a foreign policy that puts America’s national interest first, places Trump as a disciple of Hans J. Morgenthau, and of Henry Kissinger’s “A New Foreign Policy for the United States”. Published in 1965; Kissinger proposed self-interest as the first principle of American Foreign Policy, and cautioned against deeper American involvement in Vietnam.

The Strategy makes clear that the Trump Administration sees China as America’s chief rival and adversary in the world. ‘Enemy’ is too strong a term to describe Trump’s perception of China, for the Strategy sees continued trade between the two countries, and Trump himself is too clever a negotiator to make clear so stark a relationship between America and Communist China, and between himself and China’s president, Xi Jinping.

The goal of the Strategy is straightforward, “To ensure that America remains the world’s strongest, richest, most powerful, and most successful country for decades to come”. The purpose of the document is to provide coherence and focus to how the United States will interact with the world, by explaining “the essential connection between ends and means: it begins from an accurate assessment of what is desired and what tools are available, or can realistically be created, to achieve the desired outcomes.” The strategy is almost military in its antiseptic analysis.

The Strategy criticizes American strategic goals since the end of the Reagan Administration and the rise of so-called neo-cons in foreign policy, “American strategies since the end of the Cold War have fallen short—they have been laundry lists of wishes or desired end states; have not clearly defined what we want but instead stated vague platitudes; and have often misjudged what we should want.”

The Strategy criticizes the thinking of the “elites” as follows: “Our elites badly miscalculated America’s willingness to shoulder forever global burdens to which the American people saw no connection to the national interest. They overestimated America’s ability to fund, simultaneously, a massive welfare regulatory- administrative state alongside a massive military, diplomatic, intelligence, and foreign aid complex. They placed hugely misguided and destructive bets on globalism and so-called “free trade” that hollowed out the very middle class and industrial base on which American economic and military preeminence depend.” The echoes of Vietnam, of the inflationary pressures of the late 1960s through the 1970s, and everything from Bush 41 onwards reverberate through these passages. That “hollowing out” began with the 1992 NAFTA agreement, and accelerated rapidly in 2002 after China was admitted to the World Trade Organization (Bush 43).

Trump is plainly determined that America will learn from its past mistakes that he observed in his earlier life. “They allowed allies and partners to offload the cost of their defense onto the American people, and sometimes to suck us into conflicts and to suck us into controversies central to their interests but peripheral or irrelevant to our own.” (Saudi Arabia & Kuwait v. Iraq, 1990. NATO.).

The cardinal error made by the “elites” of the past, was, “they undermined … the character of our nation upon which its power, wealth, and decency were built.”

Here Trump observes that beneath America’s economic power is the character of the American people that make that economy actual. The worm of hatred, self-loathing, and contempt for American success began with the Vietnam War, and persists to this day in academia. Trump was a young man in the 1950s and 1960s, and his view of America was shaped in this period of undoubted American greatness, dominance, prosperity, success, and essential goodness.

Next: Ends

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Why the EX?

Vincent J. Curtis

26 Dec 25

This space has consistently argued against the purchase of the Lockheed-Martin F-35 for the RCAF, and instead urged that the Boeing F-15EX be the fighter jet that Canada buy.  The USAF sees some wisdom in this, as it is acquiring about 100 of these thoroughly modernized fighters from Boeing.  The combination of factors for this purchase by the USAF include: delays in delivery of the F-35, the wearing out of the F-15C/D inventory, and the favorable economics of operating a mixed fleet of both F-35 and F-15EX.

The proponents of acquiring the F-15EX emphasize that it is a powerful complement to the F-35, with special emphasis on the “deep magazine” of the F-15EX as compared to the F-35.  In stealth mode, the F-35 can only carry four missiles; whereas the loadout on the F-15EX is 12 missiles.  Hence, if the enemy air defenses are suppressed, an F-15EX sortie can deliver as much firepower as three sorties of F-35s.

Another feature offered as reason for an F-15EX acquisition is lower operating cost.  The fly-away cost of an F-35 is said to be US$82 million; that of an F-15EX is US$90 million, but the mission availability rate of the F-35 is only 67 percent, while that of the F-15EX is 83 percent. In addition, the maintenance costs of the F-35 are very high, and special hangers are required to maintain the radar absorbing coating which preserves its stealthiness. The F-15EX requires no special surface treatments or hanger conditions.

Finally, there is a radical difference in performance. The top speed of an F-35 is Mach 1.6, and it has a service ceiling of 50,000 ft; the top speed of the F-15EX fully loaded is Mach 2.5, with a service ceiling of 60,000 ft., while stripped down (to deal with those pesky Chinese balloons) the F-15EX can reach 65,000 ft, and is rumoured to have a top speed of Mach 2.9.  These, combined with a 9 g turning capability, make the F-15EX very hard to shoot down with a missile; and the new electronic suite in the F-15EX will give the pilot plenty of warning about incoming trouble. The F-15EX outranges the F-35 by several hundred miles, and has a 20,000 hr service life.

So, why should Canada purchase the F-15EX? The primary mission of the RCAF, now and always, is the air defence of North America.  A vital secondary role is the demonstration of Canadian sovereignty over the High Arctic by flights of Canadian combat aircraft in Canadian air space in the far north. For the latter purpose, stealth is not a requirement, and in some ways, i.e. the demonstration of sovereignty, stealth is a detriment: you want to be seen demonstrating sovereignty.  A fighter jet with long-range, high speed, and a deep magazine is the aircraft to deal with a flight of incoming Russian bombers. Being visible might well act as a deterrence, for there’s nothing on an adventurous Russian bomber that hurt an F-15EX.

Now, let’s talk acquisition.  There are serious production delays that retard the acquisition of a fleet of 88 F-35s.  The Boeing production line for F-15EXs is fully up and running and is filling orders at a rate of two aircraft per month. There’s plenty of room for increase to fill an urgent need from Canada. Boeing has previously indicated that money spent by Canada to acquire Super Hornets would be offset by Boeing running more business through its manufacturing facility in Winnipeg, so the industrial offsets are potentially there.

Thus, this proposal boils down to the acquisition of a smaller number of F-35s, and a larger number of F-15EXs, giving the RCAF the potential for SEAD that opens the way for the big puncher.

What about the Gripen E?  Nothing wrong with it.  I’ve likened it to Volvo’s take on the F-16, and we’ll see what it can do against Russia this spring in Ukraine. But how does the Gripen E fit in with the operational concepts elucidated above?

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Thursday, May 14, 2026

REPOST: Is COVID a Bioweapon? A conspiracy theory.

Vincent J. Curtis

 9 June 21

After Tucker Carlson’s remarkable opening monologue last night on Fox News, I no longer feel restrained about releasing this explosive piece written nearly two years ago.  I submitted to a couple of places for publication but it was considered too hot at the time. Vincent J. Curtis 28 Feb 23.

What follows is sheer speculation.  But it is speculation based on facts.

The proposition to be discussed here is that the COVID virus was an early development bioweapon in a program to address India’s growing demographic advantage over China.

It is often complained about by Canadian social justice warriors that the poor, women, and the racialized are suffering the worst from COVID.  The implication is that racism, sexism, and good old white supremacism are at work in healthcare in Canada, particularly in Ontario.

It is true that a surprising proportion of the patients hospitalized in Ontario with COVID are people of East Indian or South Asian ancestry.  India, as of this writing, is having a very tough time dealing with COVID.  So let’s take it as read that people of South Asian ancestry have a peculiar susceptibility to COVID.

The Chinese Communist Party is scared to death of India’s demographics.  China’s old “One Child” policy is coming home to roost.  Though China has now adopted a three child policy, the demographic damage of decades of the one child policy will be felt over the next thirty to fifty years.  China’s population is beginning to age, and China may see an actual decline in population by 2070.

On the other hand, India’s population is young and growing.  India is expected to surpass China in population in the coming decades.  China has been the most populous region on earth for millennia, and that point of pride will be eclipsed soon by India as a consequence of the policy of the Chinese Communist Party.

Chinese policy going back to the days of Sun Tzu is to take the long view, to win without a battle, and that the Chinese race will eventually absorb any conqueror on account of its vast numbers.  That last point is now at risk.

China has a border conflict with India going back sixty years.  Minor skirmishes instigated by China erupted recently along the so-called Line of Actual Control in the Himalayas.  Indian soldiers worsted the Chinese in these episodes, and Indian media attributes their success to the Chinese soldiers, being the one child of their family, are “precious little princesses” who aren’t willing to risk their lives or even their comfort combatting the rugged Indians.

How would a communist deal with a rising demographic advantage of a rival?  A regime that killed 70 million of its own people would have no qualms about killing several hundred million of the enemy’s population.  The question would be how to do it with minimal accountability.

Although big tech and major media in the U.S. have, for their own reasons, tried to discredit the story that the COVID virus escaped from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, it is now accepted that it did.  It is also becoming known that, incredibly, U.S. tax dollars might have funded “gain of function” research in the Wuhan lab.  “Gain of function” in this case means taking a virus found on a horseshoe bat, and modifying its genetics to make it infectious to humans.

But what if the level of know-how was such that the virus could be made especially deadly to humans of a particular genetic make-up?  It has been popular for several years to have one’s DNA tested in a lab, and you get a report on your racial ancestry.  The lab work is done in China or is owned by the Chinese; and while individual test results may be private, a picture of genetic characteristics of a region can slowly be built up after enough individual cases are evaluated.

As a bioweapon, COVID is badly designed.  It attacks the very old and the sick.  If you wanted to kill healthy, military age males, the Spanish flu virus is the bug for you.  For this reason, COVID virus may be simply an early development in the project, a project to develop race-selective fatal diseases.  It’s release may have been accidental, or not.

All this is wild speculation; the stuff of the fever-swamps of conspiracy theorists.  However, somewhere there is an intelligence analyst thinking along these lines.

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Vincent J. Curtis is a retired Canadian research scientist, and occasional free-lance writer.